Law of Probability played versus kinglee

It is interesting to note that crossword games like Wordsmith are not only scoring words you play on the board, but also utilizing skills on how to tackle the law of probability especially in the pre-endgame. For this week, I am going to show two of my games against kinglee that demonstrate the idea on how to calculate possibilities in a given situation. After reading this whole post, your mindset will be focused on brainstorming ideas, and you can exploit this strategy in your future games, win or lose! Let's start the ball rolling on the last two concluded matches vs. kinglee. This was the first of the last two games we have played, starting from this board position:

(position after kinglee's OXTAIL)

The game was almost equal before kinglee's four-timer, OXTAIL. We have one bingo each, GERuNDS for me and DELIBATE for him. I also played SEAWAN, a four-timer. In this board position, it was not really my intention to play CuNT but I want to make sure if this was really deleted by Wordsmith in the original YAWL lexicon, and so, I tried to play it.

(tiger2002 played CuNT)

As it turned out, it was confirmed that CuNT has been removed by Wordsmith. You can see the red mark on the upper right portion of the screen, indicating that the word is invalid. If you are planning a play out using this word when that's the only winning move, better not to do it in your future games now that you have read this. Check out the play of tiger2002:

(position after tiger2002's CUTIN)

Knowledge in hooking letter to existing word is just a way of improving player's scoring game. Later in the game, kinglee has built the lead and the position looked like this:

(position after kinglee's WEIRDY)

kinglee played five tiles, WEIRDY hooking W to HAP and connecting to the letter I on the board, scoring 36 points and left one tile in the bag. The lead was 65, and unseen tiles from tiger2002's point of view were EINQSTUY. Surveying for the possible bingo options, there were two opened letter E which could be a potential spot. This is now the crucial point of decision. The only way for a bingo next turn in either of the two separate spots was to dump the letter E in the hope of drawing the letter N in the bag, and the probability of pick up was 1:8 or 12.5% chance. If that happens, EPHEDRIN could be played either of the two openings as mentioned. Other tile pick up would have no chances of bingo. Worse scenario would be a pick up of letter E, in view of SQUINTY/ALTS possibility for my opponent. I realized also that if I drew the N, I should assume that the final rack of kinglee would be EIQSTYU and this would mean big scoring chances loomed in the triple lane like for example, QuEY or QuIT. So, I could not swap a tile because of that potential scoring spot for kinglee. Then, I thought of partially blocking that spot by playing EN atop GERuNDS for 3 points. But then, kinglee could play QUITES/(GI/ET/RE/uS) with a score of 38 points and he would be leading by 100 points after that. And, if N was really in the bag, I could play the last bingo move, EPHEDRIN on the E of CHLORATE for 88 points catching him with the Y, and a 6 point victory for kinglee would be the only closest margin of loss that tiger2002 could get. Other option would be to dump the letter "I" elsewhere in the hope of drawing the S for a SPHERED/ALTS possible bingo next turn, but that would be the only spot available and could be blocked, easily. Why not give a try, then after that, wait for kinglee's move. So, tiger2002's final decision was this play....

(position after tiger2002's EN)

I played EN, but I picked up the Q! Alas, it's all over! kinglee played LIEN/(AIR, WED, ANY) then followed it up with SUETY after I responded with REDIP/(DELIBATED, OP). It's a loss! At least, I have tried it, and will calculate the same idea in any future games with the same situation of catching up. Up next, was our latest completed game today. This was the board position.

(position after kinglee's MURRIEs)

I played two bingos, BEHOTING and ANISETTE, but kinglee had two blanks and played two bingos as well, CREASInG and his current move, MURRIEs. I was trailing, 291-380. In this board position, tiger2002 found a nice bingo!

(position after tiger2002's PONDERATE)

It was a risky opening for a nine-timer, but PONDERATE was the only scoring play available based on the previous board position. I drew ARLOVFS from the bag and I could form FLAVORS but no place to go, unless kinglee would give opening. This was the next move of kinglee:

(position after kinglee's ZLOTE)

What a bold ZLOTE play by kinglee, and this opened up another nine-timer and a four-timer at the same time! The score was 359-434, and tiger2002 was trailing by 75 points. With three tiles in the bag, the unseen tiles were EIJLPQRSUX. There were high point tiles (JQX) still unplayed. I was thinking to play FAVORS in the opened four-timer for 56 points but there were other scoring options available for kinglee, the Z or the E in the triple lanes! FOVEAL in the triple was also a good scoring move. Inspired by tiger2002's previous post regarding the pre-endgame tactics, this was his ultimate chance of a possible comeback, check out the play:

(tiger2002 swapped L)

I decided to swap the L instead of playing it elsewhere like LET for 8 points. It would be more difficult for him to work out the possibilities of 10 unseen tiles compared to 9 tiles, leaving him guessing how many tiles that were swapped because in his mobile/tablet screen, it would only appear as "tiger2002 swapped tiles". That's what you called tactics, and anyone could exploit this strategy in their pre-endgame now that it has been revealed and proven effective in some situations. How many possible rack combinations that could be formed from unseen 10 tiles and analyzing the possible moves? That would be a big headache for him if he wanted to perform simulations, LOL! Wait for a while, why did I swap L in the first place? I was hoping to draw that important letter and the chances of a miraculous pick up was 1:10 or 10%, and praying kinglee won't block it. Check out the tile pick up:

(tiger2002 has drawn R)

What a lucky pick! Without further ado, kinglee played............

(position after kinglee's QUIZ)

kinglee maximized his score by playing QUIZ to make it 359-500. That was a commanding 141 point lead by kinglee! So, his final seven tiles has been revealed in my tracking as EJLLPSX. And, here comes the fantastic move that shattered kinglee's high scoring game!

(tiger2002 played FAVORERS for 193 points!)

(Game Statistics after FAVORERS)

FAVORERS scored 193 points catching kinglee with EJLLPSX (24 points value), so the final score of tiger2002 was (359+193+24) 576. While kinglee's final score was (500-24) 476. What a dramatic endgame finish! If only Wordsmith indicated the number of tiles that has been swapped by tiger2002, then kinglee would have played in the opened E instead of Z which was more logical to block. I don't know exactly what was the rack of kinglee before the QUIZ play, but I guessed the score of 66 points was too tempting for him.

(Final Score tiger2002-576, kinglee-476)

(chat messages after the game)

(4-players bracket final update)

Earning 20 coins in this memorable feat!

(tiger2002's Stats after the tournament)

Conclusion:

When ahead, it is a golden rule not to create more openings. It is better to score and block at the same time to minimize the chances of opponent's comeback. On the other hand, when you are behind in the pre-endgame situation like this, try to explore possibilities even though how slim the chances are, who knows, it could be the only probable way of stealing victory from the jaws of defeat! You are already in the brink of losing the game anyway, why not give a try? Always keep in mind: "The game isn't over 'til it's over!" And that should always be the battle cry of a good competitive player!